Prediction of crypto courses using Monte Carlo simulation

How will the price of a crypto currency develop in the future? Of course we do not all have a glass sphere, but on the basis of statistical models it is possible to estimate the extent to which price changes can be expected. The Monte Carlo simulation is presented here as one of these models.

How will Bitcoin behave in 2018?

This is a question that many people are asking and which is often addressed to BTC-ECHO. The Internet is also full of forecasts on how Bitcoin and other crypto currencies should behave within a certain period of time. In the case of Bitcoin, the range goes from zero to one million euros.

But the sobering truth is, to put it in the words of Mark Hanna: Nobody knows if a stock is going to go up, down, sideways or in circles. Nobody can say with 100% certainty where the price will be tomorrow, next week or a year from now.

Assessments are, of course, another issue. As was recently explained, the aim of technical analysis is to arrive at a well-founded assessment of future developments and a trading strategy on the basis of past price movements – not to predict the price.

Especially for long-term price developments, methods exist in the financial world to estimate further price developments. These methods are also used to estimate the probability with which a price forecast applies. This is done using statistical tools, which will be presented in this article. I have also developed a small web application myself, which I will discuss in more detail later.

Goals for 2018: Sidechains, IPFS, Dapp SDK

2018 and onwards, Ethereum Classic is going about a lot. This year alone it is planned to support sidechains, which can relieve the main chain a bit similar to Lisk. The Interplanetary File System should be supported and a Standard Development Kit for developers of decentralized applications should be published. The entire roadmap can be found on the Ethereum Classic website.

The development team has set itself some interesting goals. It will be exciting to see if these goals are actually achieved. At the latest when this is the case, the crypto currency should think about a rebranding in order not to be considered as „something with ethereum“ all the time.